Protean Therapy

I watched a video today that got me thinking… What’s the most underrated team to ever win an NBA championship?

Disclaimer: First off, I’m lazy, and I don’t want to exhaustively research this list. So, I’m going to do quickly for the last three-ish decades of NBA basketball: we’re talking 90’s, 2000’s, 2010’s, & 2020’s…

(5) 22′ Warriors (53 wins, 29 losses)

• After five consecutive finals appearances and three NBA championships from 2015 to 2019, the Golden State Warriors once again returned to the promised land for their fourth championship. Their core players (Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, & Klay Thompson) along with veterans Kevon Looney and Andre Iguodala remained intact along with another key contributor Wiggins and a younger supporting cast of players like Porter Jr., Poole, & Payton II.
• Won in 6 games over Boston.

(4) 06′ Miami Heat (52 wins, 30 losses)

• The big man Shaquille O’Neal and young-gun Dwane Wade teamed up with key role players like Udonis Haslem & James Posey, key contributors Jason Williams & Antoine Walker, and wily veterans Alonzo Mourning & Gary Payton Sr. to get South Beach their first ever NBA championship. Shaq was a decade older than Wade at only 24 years old. But, after falling behind two games to zero, the used Wade’s offense and a solid team effort to win four games in a row.

• Won in 6 games over Dallas.

(3) 11′ Dallas Mavericks (57 wins, 25 losses)

• While this team may have been stacked with great players, they had to take down the new talents of South Beach. Fortunately for the Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki was in his prime and he & Jason Terry had gained valuable experience losing the NBA finals to Wade & Shaq’s Heat in 06′. They teamed up with key contributors like DeShawn Stevenson, Tyson Chandler, & Shawn Marion and veteran players like Jason Kidd & Peja Stojaković to take down the Heat. Back up point guard J.J. Barea also stepped up as a key role player to help the Dallas Mavericks win their first NBA championship.
• Won in 6 games over Miami.

(2) 21′ Milwaukee Bucks (46 wins, 26 losses)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo & Khris Middleton aided by Jrue Holiday & Brooke Lopez as well as key role players, P.J. Tucker, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, & Jeff Teague led the Milwaukee Bucks team to their first NBA championship in 50 years.
• Won in 6 games over Phoenix.

(1) 04′ Detroit Pistons (54 wins, 28 losses)

• If you didn’t see that one coming, you probably haven’t watched the video I watched today. The 04′ Pistons were an underrated TEAM with lot of underrated, specialist-type, players. Unlike so many modern “teams” (e.g. Kobe’s Lakers, Lebron’s Heat, & Steph’s Warriors) that focus on 2 to 3 superstars (e.g. O’Neal & Gasol, Wade & Bosh, and Durant, Klay, & Draymond), the Pistons were dependent on ALL five starters and some of their bench players. I watched these 04′ finals on my grandpa’s rural farm in Owosso, Michigan and loved it because (a) Detroit was the underdog, (b) the Lakers had already won three rings in a row, and (c) it took the whole team plus (d) stellar defense for Detroit to win this championship.

• Won in 5 games over Los Angeles.

Note: NONE of the above 5 teams (A) made the finals in the prior year or (B) won more than 70% of their regular season games…

Every championship team has underrated players that they rely on to win. I also loved watching the 99′, 03′, 05′, 07′, & 14′ Spurs (Duncan, Robinson, Bowen, Ginobli, Parker, Horry, Diaw, Leonard) and the 08′ Celtics (Pierce, Allen, Garnett, Wallace, Rondo, Allen) teams during this era. Look at all those underrated, specialist-type players: Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, & Tony Allen to name a few.

The 04′ Pistons, 08′ Celtics, and 14′ Spurs stick out to me as some teams that really needed ALL their guys to get it done. So, who would some honorable mentions for most underrated NBA champions of the last 35 years be?

Honorable Mentions:

Had Win Percentage higher than 70%:

• 08′ Boston Celtics (66 wins, 16 losses)
  • Won 80.5% of regular season games.
• 15′ Golden State Warriors (67 wins, 15 losses)
  • Won 81.7% of regular season games.
• 19′ Toronto Raptors (58 wins, 24 losses)
  • Won 70.7% of regular season games but did not make finals prior year

In Finals Prior Year:

• 93′ Chicago Bulls (57 wins, 25 losses)
• 95′ Houston Rockets (47 wins, 35 losses)
• 01′ Los Angeles Lakers (56 wins, 26 losses)
• 10′ Los Angeles Lakers (57 wins, 25 losses)
• 14′ San Antonio Spurs (62 wins, 20 losses)
  • Won 75.6% of regular season games.
  • Won in 7 games.
• 16′ Cleveland Caveliers (57 wins, 25 losses)

But, what is the most underrated team to ever win an NBA Championship? That’s a subject for another post…

Post-Test: How did the lower win percentage and lack of consecutive NBA finals appearances methodology hold up?

Turns out, win-percentage and consecutive NBA finals appearances may not be as impactful as I thought when trying to determine the most underrated NBA championship teams… Here are the lowest pre-season win probability NBA champions over the last 35 years according to wbay.com:

Lowest Preseason Win Probability Champions

1. 2014-15 Golden State Warriors (+2800): Opened with 28-1 odds to win, making them the biggest preseason underdogs to win a title in the last 35 years.
2. 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (+2000): Widely considered major underdogs, they defeated a Heat superteam in the Finals.
3. 2018-19 Toronto Raptors (+1850): Won after trading for Kawhi Leonard, facing long odds against the Warriors dynasty.
4. 2022-23 Denver Nuggets (+1800): Ranked as long shots despite having a strong roster, due to previous playoff shortcomings.
5. 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (+1500): Famous for having no All-Stars on their roster and upsetting the heavily favored Lakers.
6. 1993-94 Houston Rockets (+1200): Won following Michael Jordan’s first retirement in a wide-open field. 

Here are the lowest playoff seeds to win an NBA according to interbasket.net:

• 2002 Los Angeles Lakers (#3 seed)
• 2007 San Antonio Spurs (#3 seed)
• 2022 Golden State Warriors (#3 seed)
• 2011 Dallas Mavericks (#3 seed)
• 2004 Detroit Pistons (#3 seed)
• 1995 Houston Rockets (#6 seed)

So, 3/5ish… that’s a 60% percentage, so if we were talking 3-point field goal percentage, I’ll take that…